ALGUNOS escritores han confundido de tal modo la sociedad con el gobierno, que hacen muy poca o casi ninguna distinción entre ambas cosas, cuando no solamente son diferentes entre sí, sino que tienen también distinto origen. La sociedad es el resultado de nuestras necesidades, y el gobierno el de nuestras iniquidades: la primera promueve nuestra felicidad POSITIVAMENTE, uniendo nuestras afecciones, y el segundo NEGATIVAMENTE, restringiendo nuestros vicios: la una activa el trato de los hombres, el otro cría las distinciones: aquélla es un protector, y éste un azote de la humanidad.

Thomas Paine (1737-1809) padre fundador de los Estados Unidos

Terrazas del Rodeo

Collapsing Economies

1 mes 1 semana antes - 1 mes 1 semana antes #1 por Socrates
Collapsing Economies Publicado por Socrates
First Emerging Market to Default

Sri Lanka has defaulted on its debts for the first time in its history. It has faced an economic and political crisis triggered by global shock waves from the pandemic and the war in Ukraine. Inflation has hit 40% and the shortages of food, fuel, and medicines combined with the rolling power blackouts, have led to nationwide civil unrest. Their currency has been collapsing and in the face of rising US dollars, they are unable to pay their debt.

Sri Lanka will lower the maximum amount of foreign currency that individuals can possess to $10,000 from $15,000 and penalize anyone who holds it for more than three months. The central bank announced the new rules yesterday, as police fired tear gas and water cannons at thousands of students demanding the government step down for failing to solve the country’s economic crisis.

Sri Lanka is actually the oldest democracy in Asia, and now it is the first default by an Asia-Pacific nation this century. I have warned that the rise in the dollar and the rise in US interest rates would set off an economic crisis in the Emerging Markets. This is just the beginning. It is also what I have tried to point out that the CIVIL UNREST forecast is the precursor to international war and they are the greatest risk to institutions and political change.

Sri Lanka said last month that it would stop repaying its international debts to conserve dwindling foreign currency reserves, vital for importing key raw materials from overseas. It is caught between a rock and a hard place as shortages and inflation rise it is having a devasting effect upon third world countries. The first revolution was in Pakistan. We are looking at the widespread political crisis unfolding in emerging markets. The central bank governor, Nandalal Weerasinghe, said: “Our position is very clear: until there is a debt restructure, we cannot repay.”

Which countries could go the Sri Lanka way

Sri Lanka's debt crisis is a warning to the world. The World Bank says a global debt storm is coming. It could engulf 70 developing countries & make their economies fall like dominoes. What are the threats they face? How can they be averted?

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1 mes 4 días antes - 1 mes 4 días antes #2 por Editor
Respuesta de Editor sobre el tema Collapsing Economies
Pakistan can run out of cash in "less than 2 months"

Pakistan could run out of foreign exchange reserves in less than 2 months. Islamabad failed to reach a deal with IMF for a bailout. The political instability could further destabilize Pakistan. Will the battle for power spell Pakistan's collapse?

Pakistan descends into civil war

Pakistan has officially descended into civil war. PTI supporters ran riot in Islamabad on Wednesday. They torched vehicles & set trees on fire. Imran Khan has now set a 6-day deadline for Shehbaz Sharif. Where are things headed?

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1 semana 17 horas antes #3 por Editor
Respuesta de Editor sobre el tema Collapsing Economies
The Collapse of the Republic

Every inflation wave is different, and this one won't be fixed by raising rates. This one is based on shortages and not a speculative boom. They don't want to admit that the lockdowns started the collapse in the supply chain. There is no economic understanding with politicians as they all operate with blinders.

We're going to see more unrest in Third World countries due to energy costs. People will vote from their recent experience. When Trump became elected, populism became the enemy. Politicians are threatened by nationalism. The truth is, most of them hate democracy. The heads of the E.U. are appointed and governments in that union are subservient. It doesn't really matter who gets elected. These people would love to impose a similar system here in North America.

The causes of hyperinflation are usually fairly complex. For Germany in 1922 they couldn't repay their reparations, so they confiscated 10 percent of everyone's assets for a bond. However, this action caused citizens to rapidly diversify out of the state currency. Usually, hyperinflations are the result of a loss of confidence. He describes how the capture of a Roman emperor created a loss of confidence in the government and began the debasing of the currency.

He discusses his model and how it's indicating a shift in the types of government from Republics to more direct democracies around 2032. Republics represent their own self-interest, and that eventually is their downfall. He expects another collapse around 2032.

Time Stamp References:
0:00 - Introduction
0:38 - Economic Confidence Model
8:40 - Malice or Stupidity?
10:20 - Power Cycles & Davos
16:05 - Debt & Owning Nothing
17:38 - Russia & Putin's Ratings
20:10 - Society & Religions
22:18 - Historic Hyperinflations
30:42 - The Problem with Debt
35:47 - MMT - The Road Ahead?
37:43 - Ukraine Outcome?
44:40 - Soros & China/Russia
50:00 - The Coming Shift
53:58 - CBDCs and Control
55:38 - Manias and Bubbles?
58:46 - The Gold Cycle & Assets
1:04:14 - Housing Markets
1:05:03 - Censorship
1:07:06 - Wrap Up

Talking Points From This Episode
- Inflationary pressures are being caused by supply chain disruptions.
- Expect further unrest due to energy costs.
- The historic causes of hyperinflations.
- Why governments will move from Republics to more direct democracies.

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Gracias a Foro Kunena